Predictability at Risk: Why Sustainable Sourcing from Brazil Defines the Future of Food
How European food and ingredient companies can turn EUDR compliance and supply chain risks into market advantage
Introduction
Every week, there’s another headline shaking the global food supply chain and exposing the fragility of sourcing from Brazil and other origins.
US tariffs on Brazilian coffee of 50%. Shipping routes disrupted in the Red Sea. Cocoa harvests in West Africa collapsing under climate stress.
Different regions, different products — but they all point to the same truth: supply has become unpredictable.
For global giants, this is a challenge. They have multiple sourcing hubs, global risk teams, and enough buffer to absorb shocks. For mid-sized European food and ingredient companies sourcing from Brazil or Latin America, it’s existential. One failed harvest, one delayed shipment, and a client can be lost.
Procurement teams in these companies are skilled in what they do best: negotiating contracts, managing margins, and keeping supply flowing. But many are further removed from the realities of farming, climate volatility, and agricultural cycles.
I’ve spent 14 years in agriculture, seeing first-hand how what happens in the field directly shapes contracts, margins, and delivery. That’s the gap I help companies close. And it’s why I believe predictability is now the most valuable asset in the global food trade.
The Problem: Predictability as the Missing Link
Most companies define supply security in terms of volume, quality, and compliance. If they can secure enough product, meet specs, and pass regulatory checks, they believe the job is done.
But in today’s global food supply chain, those conditions are not enough. What truly defines competitive advantage is constancy over time — the ability to deliver season after season despite volatility.
And that’s where the cracks appear:
In Brazil, droughts and frosts in coffee and soybean supply chains cut harvests and margins collapse — a stark reminder of how sustainable Brazilian agriculture is directly tied to security of supply.
In Asia, monsoon variability in India or Vietnam makes spice supply swing year to year.
In Africa, cocoa production is squeezed by climate extremes and political instability, disrupting shipments to Europe.
Mid-sized European food and ingredient companies depend heavily on sourcing Brazil’s agriculture and other regions but lack the diversification power of multinationals. Without predictability, contracts become fragile, margins erode, and client trust evaporates.
Why Compliance Alone Won’t Secure Supply
Regulation is everywhere in today’s food supply chain. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) now defines the rules of sustainable sourcing from Brazil and elsewhere, alongside certification schemes and traceability requirements that affect soy, coffee, and cocoa supply chains.
Compliance gives the license to operate. It protects access to markets and shields companies from regulatory risk.
But compliance cannot prevent a drought from wiping out a harvest. It cannot stop political unrest from blocking a shipping route. It cannot ensure that the same supplier delivers next season.
Many companies put enormous energy into “ticking compliance boxes” while ignoring the broader risk: unpredictability.
One European coffee buyer told me they had all the certifications and audits in place. Yet when the Brazilian harvest collapsed, none of that mattered. One of their farmers reported a 50% cut in yield.
Compliance protects access to markets. But only sustainable sourcing strategies in Brazil compete — turning compliance into resilience and advantage.
Without predictability, compliance becomes a fragile shield: it looks strong, but it won’t secure contracts in practice.
The POS – Predictable Supply Operating System
From my experience, predictable supply doesn’t happen by chance. It requires a system that strengthens sourcing foundations from farm to market.
I call it the POS – Predictable Supply Operating System, built on four pillars:
Resilient Production (farm level)
Predictability starts in the field. In Brazil, this means climate-smart and regenerative agriculture practices that stabilize yields and make Brazilian agriculture sustainability a reality. Farming practices determine whether harvests withstand climate extremes.
Regenerative agriculture, diversified cropping, and climate-smart methods reduce variability and improve resilience.
Companies that engage suppliers on practices aren’t just buying crops — they are investing in stability.Reliable Partnerships (supplier level)
Transactional procurement — annual contracts and price-only negotiations — no longer works in volatile markets.
Predictability requires trust-based supplier partnerships, where both sides commit long-term.
When producers have stable demand and fair terms, they prioritize those buyers in times of scarcity.Transparent Compliance (system level)
Compliance must be embedded into sourcing systems, not treated as a burden.
When transparency is integrated, it builds confidence with regulators, clients, and investors.
Done right, compliance becomes a predictability enabler, not a distraction.Market Integration (value level)
Predictability is not just operational — it is a commercial advantage.
Reliable sourcing allows companies to build strong market narratives, meet commitments, and justify premium positioning.
When procurement and marketing align, predictability translates into growth and reputation.
Closing the Gap Between Procurement and Agriculture
Procurement teams know contracts, margins, and supplier management. Farmers work with climate variability, soil, and planting cycles. The disconnect between the two is where predictability is lost.
A contract may look solid, but if drought hits Brazil— the world’s largest soy and coffee exporter — shipments don’t arrive. Without integrating Brazil supply chain realities into procurement, predictability will always remain fragile.
A certification may prove compliance, but if unrest closes borders in West Africa, cocoa still doesn’t move.
Bridging this gap means translating field realities into procurement strategy.
It’s about ensuring contracts create incentives for stability in the field, and procurement integrates agricultural realities into decision-making.
Because at the end of the day: contracts don’t move goods, farmers do.
Unless procurement integrates the field, predictability will always remain at risk.
Conclusion: Predictability as the New Competitive Currency
Storytelling inspires. Compliance protects. But only predictability secures the future of food and ingredient companies.
For companies sourcing from Latin America — especially Brazil’s agricultural supply chains — the greatest risk today is not just regulation or price, but inconsistency. A contract is only as strong as the ability to deliver on it, season after season.
Predictability in sustainable sourcing from Brazil has become the new competitive currency. It builds client trust, stabilizes margins, and transforms sourcing from constant risk into market advantage.
But predictability doesn’t happen by chance. It requires a system: resilient production, reliable partnerships, transparent compliance, and market integration. Together, these pillars form the POS – Predictable Supply Operating System.
This blind spot is where many food and ingredient companies lose ground. Closing it is what turns fragile sourcing into reliable growth.
FREE Assessment
If this resonates with you, I created a FREE Predictable Supply Assessment to help agri-food companies measure the resilience of their supply chains.
Identify hidden risks
Benchmark resilience across the five pillars
Gain actionable feedback to secure predictability as a competitive edge